I started this project, Benbo Bets, on February 6, 2021. In May of 2021 two partners joined the venture.
The goal was to have a sports betting index fund that bested the S&P 500.
After one calendar year here are the results:
Benbo Bets One Year ROI: 44.1%
S&P 500 One Year ROI: 15.8%
So, our overall goal, beat the S&P 500, was achieved.
In mid-December we put the project on hold as projecting lineups and minutes with so many players out due to Covid protocols was difficult.
As of today, we are still on hold.
And I don’t know if we are going to continue.
The ROI is a positive sign this project is working.
By the same token our ROI on 9/2/21 was 43.8% which means ROI hardly budged from September through mid-December when we placed the project on hold.
On 11/18/21, we hit a high of 61.6% ROI. From that perspective, we lost money over the last month of picks.
Yeah, but 44.1% ROI in one year is phenomenal. How does that compare to Bitcoin?
Well, maybe not the best time to ask, but yes, Bitcoin’s ROI over the past year is 9.4%. Tesla is 8.3% and Apple is 25.9%. Facebook’s ROI is -11.6% and Netflix is -25.5%, so yes, we beat them all.
Want to know who we didn’t beat in the past year?
Coca-Cola (104.5%) and Exxon (56.3%).
So why are you saying the three of you may not continue with the project?
Doing this work takes a toll.
While it is based on a publicly available, peer-reviewed formula, this project still requires a significant amount of work and decision-making. Every. Single. Day.
It’s a lot.
The biggest stressor is the awareness people are betting their own money on our picks. It becomes a challenge not to let each day’s slate of games consume your thoughts.
And then there is the time.
My two partners and I are doing this as a side project. At first I was the one projecting minutes and making predictions. When my two partners joined the venture, one of them took on these responsibilities. It’s a lot of man-hours and it takes a toll.
Yeah, but 44.1%…
I know. Here are more downsides. None of us live in a state where online sports betting is legal so we can’t run our own bankroll. At the moment we have 11 paid subscribers (although billing is on hold and was paused for most of the the second half of 2021, during the NBA Finals, the WNBA season, and the NBA pre-season). At $50 a month, that works out $550 a month, minus the 13% cut that Substack and Stripe take, and then split three ways.
It’s not enough for the amount of work we put in (and the amount of stress).
So, even though the U.S. is coming out of the Omicron wave, and lineups are more stable, Benbo Bets is going to remain paused.
I am interested in seeing if there is a way to automate more of what we do. If we can do that, or find another solution, we’ll start it back up. Or we may shut it down entirely.
For subscribers, billing is still on hold and, if we do decide to shut the project down, everyone will get a pro-rated refund. Or, if you don’t want to wait, please reply to this email with the word “refund” and I will process your pro-rated refund within 48 hours.
It’s been an interesting experience.
I’ll keep you updated.
Sincerely,
Ben
Thank you for your a great letter and letting us know the hurdles you have in prepping this every night. Best of luck to you and your team.