Hi Everyone,
So I don’t have plans to reactivate this newsletter on a daily basis but there is a pre-season value play I want to point out.
BOS won 51 games last year and went to the NBA Finals.
They are the second favorites, after GSW, to win the NBA Finals this year.
Vegas projects them to win 54 games.
Last year their most productive player was Rob Williams, who produced 15 wins.
After having knee surgery, it will be two to three months before Williams can return to “basketball related activities.” Meaning… it might be up to four months before Williams returns to game play (or as little as two).
Al Horford was also a productive player for BOS, adding five wins to the ledger. He’s 36 this season and his productivity will likely decline.
BOS did add Malcolm Brogdon at backup point guard. Brogdon produces wins at about the same rate as the starting point guard, Marcus Smart. However, Smart’s current backup, Payton Pritchard, also produces wins at about the same rate as Brogdon so that’s a wash, unless BOS is smart (see what I did there) and plays Pritchard and Brogdon together as backup point and shooting guards.
Let’s add all this up for BOS:
51 wins last year
Minus two wins for Horford’s likely age-related decline
Plus two wins for the addition of Brogdon (assuming BOS is smart and plays Pritchard as well).
Minus ten wins for the absence of Williams, the team’s most productive player.
That gives BOS 41 wins.
The usual caveats apply:
BOS could make a trade and add a productive player.
Luke Kornet and Sam Hauser both had productive seasons in limited minutes. If their minutes ramp up and productivity remains the same that would limit the impact of Williams missing games.
Another player could have an unusually productive season.
All the being said, I see betting the under of 54 wins as a high value pick.
I recommend a 2% of bankroll play here.
And…
I think BOS has the potential to miss the playoffs entirely.
So I’m also recommending a .5% of bankroll pick on BOS missing the playoffs at +1400.
The first game of the regular season is PHI at BOS. PHI is +3. I also recommend making that play now before pre-season games start and people see how bad BOS is without Williams.
Three picks below.
Cheers,
Ben
Picks for Today
NBA
BOS 54 WINS
UNDER -115
High Value: Recommend 2% of bankroll on this play
BOS TO MISS PLAYOFFS
+1400
.5% of bankroll
PHI at BOS (10/3/22)
PHI +3
.5% of bankroll
Our general recommended unit/betting amount is .5% of bankroll per pick. We recommend never betting more than 5% of your bankroll on any full slate.
Recap of Previous Day
NBA
N/A
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