Hi Everyone,
Well, that was ugly. Two and four last night with the “High Confidence” play of IND over DET losing.
Looking over the box scores I don’t see anything unexplainable. Let’s break it down…
In the IND at DET game what stands out is Bagley both played for DET and was uncharacteristically productive. The model does have Bagley as trending up but still at below average productivity AND I had him as not playing in the game (he missed the previous two). Instead, Bagley played 22 minutes, scored 18 points on 9 for 16 shooting, and pitched in eight rebounds with only 1 turnover. That’s a productive game.
NYK lost to PHO by one on a buzzer-beater. We won the spread but lost a nice underdog ML payout. Still, it’s an indication the model is on to something.
For UTA at NOP, Conley and Bogdanovic shot a combined 2 for 19 for UTA. That’s variance. It happens…
Five plays today.
Cheers,
Ben
Picks
NBA
DAL at SAC
DAL -4.5
Even with Doncic out DAL has a number of productive players.