Hi Everyone,
Well, that was ugly. Six picks, five losses.
About two weeks ago I made a change to the model, placing more emphasis on player productivity, and minutes, over the last five games. In theory that should make the predictive power of the model more accurate. In reality, I’m worried it may be overemphasizing recent games.
It will take about ten more days of games to be sure but, as I mentioned last week, you may want to hold off on placing any bets based on these picks until I get ten more days of data in the model.
Six, perhaps seven, plays today.
Cheers,
Ben
Recap of Previous Day
NBA
HOU AT NOP
HOU +7 - Lost
HOU ML +3.35 - Lost
MEM AT OKC
OKC +14 - Won
OKC ML +9.1 - Lost
OKC has an almost unprecedented three days of rest and is playing at home.
LAL AT PHO
LAL +8.5 - Lost
LAL ML +4.1 - Lost
This is a go-bet only if LeBron plays for LAL.
Our recommended unit/betting amount is .5% of bankroll per pick. We recommend never betting more than 5% of your bankroll on any full slate.
Picks for Today
NBA
POR at ATL
POR ML 8.5
MIN at SAS
SAS +3.5
SAS ML 2.45
WAS at GSW
WAS +11.5
CHI at SAC
CHI -3.5
MIL at UTA
UTA -2
TOR at LAL
LAL ML 2.8
Only if VanFleet is out for TOR.
Our recommended unit/betting amount is .5% of bankroll per pick. We recommend never betting more than 5% of your bankroll on any full slate.
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One-Year Mark, February 6, 2022
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