NBA Futures Picks and Recap
Hi Everyone,
Last week I sent out three picks regarding BOS.
I’ve worked up the numbers for the rest of the league but first let’s recap last season’s NBA futures picks.
We posted on October 19, 2021.
Here were the recommended picks and the results:
NBA
We recommend .5% of bankroll per pick except where noted.
DAL - UNDER 48.5
LOST
LAL - UNDER 52.5 (We recommend a 1% of bankroll bet for this pick, meaning our confidence interval is high for this pick.)
WON
MEM - OVER 41.5
WON
NYK - OVER 42.5
LOST
POR - OVER 44.5
LOST
POR - WEST CHAMPS +2800
LOST
SAS - OVER 30.5 (We recommend a 1% of bankroll bet for this pick, meaning our confidence interval is high for this pick.)
WON
Shakes out to a .5% ROI.
That brings our pick total up to 893 with an ROI of 32.6%.
As always our sheet is here, including our ugly 20 - 57 - 1 slide over the last six weeks of picks after all-star break last season.
Which brings me to…
2022 - 2023 Futures Picks
These picks are for the teams where I think my analysis has an edge so not every team is here.
I recommend .5% of bankroll per pick except where noted.
ATL - OVER 46
ATL won 43 games last year and added Dejounte Murray, who produced thirteen wins for the Spurs. There is some positional overlap with Trae Young but, if ATL is smart and Murray starts in place of Bogdanovic, ATL should pick up at least four additional wins.
BOS - UNDER 54
I wrote about BOS last week. This is a highest confidence pick, so 2% of bankroll.
CHA - OVER 36.5
They’re basically the same team as last year. They won 43 games last year.
DAL - OVER 48.5
They won 52 games last season. Dinwiddie is more productive than Brunson. McGee is a wins producing gem.
DEN - UNDER 50.5
DEN won 48 games last season. Popular opinion seems to be the return of Murray and Porter Jr. will vault them above 50 wins. I think, unfortunately, they will both be unproductive this season. And they lost Monte Morris, their second most productive player last season. This is a high confidence pick so 1% of bankroll.
DET - UNDER 29
DET won 23 games last year. They haven’t improved. This is a high confidence pick so 1% of bankroll.
GSW - UNDER 52
Fourteen wins walked out the door with Payton and Porter. Key question is how productive is Wiseman. He missed all of last season. Two years ago, as a rookie, he was a negative production player. If he has improved and is an above-average center GSW is in good shape. If not, they’re not.
LAL - UNDER 44.5
Unless they do a Westbrook and picks for Kevin Love trade, LAL is dead in the water.
MIN - OVER 48.5
Gobert is a wins producing machine.
NOP - UNDER 45
No one has seen Zion in a year. They won 39 games last year. That said, CJ McCollum was incredible for them.
NYK - UNDER 39.5
Replacing Burks with Brunson is a wash. If Robinson gets hurt this team is in trouble.
ORL UNDER 29
ORL won 22 games last year. They haven’t improved.
PHI - OVER 50.5
PHI won 51 games last year. They added productive players in Harrell, Melton and Tucker. Harden is in shape. I like PHI to win the East. This is a highest confidence pick so 2% of bankroll.
PHO - OVER 52.5
PHO won 64 games last year. All five starters are productive and back. What am I missing? This is a high confidence pick so 1% of bankroll.
SAS OVER 22.5
Never doubt Pop. This is a high confidence pick so 1% of bankroll.
In addition I like these five plays:
PHI TO WIN EAST +850
PHI TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP +1600
BOS TO MISS PLAYOFFS +1400
SAS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS +2000
PHI at BOS (10/16/22)
PHI +3
All picks listed below.
Cheers,
Ben
Picks for Today
NBA
ATL - OVER 46
BOS - UNDER 54
This is a highest confidence pick so 2% of bankroll.
CHA - OVER 36.5
DAL - OVER 48.5
DEN - UNDER 50.5
This is a high confidence pick so 1% of bankroll.
DET - UNDER 29
This is a high confidence pick so 1% of bankroll.
GSW - UNDER 52
LAL - UNDER 44.5
MIN - OVER 48.5
NOP - UNDER 45
NYK - UNDER 39.5
ORL UNDER 29
PHI - OVER 50.5
This is a highest confidence pick so 2% of bankroll.
PHO - OVER 52.5
This is a high confidence pick so 1% of bankroll.
SAS OVER 22.5
This is a high confidence pick so 1% of bankroll.
PHI TO WIN EAST +850
PHI TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP +1600
BOS TO MISS PLAYOFFS +1400
SAS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS +2000
PHI at BOS (10/16/22)
PHI +3
Our general recommended unit/betting amount is .5% of bankroll per pick.
Recap of Previous Day
NBA
N/A
Our recommended unit/betting amount is .5% of bankroll per pick. We recommend never betting more than 5% of your bankroll on any full slate.
Google Sheet
You can find our Google Sheet here, which includes a record of all picks, YTD ROI and monthly ROI. Check the tabs at the bottom.
Overall ROI on 886 picks is 31.9%.
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